Strategy Analysis Dashboard

Global Multi-Asset Systematic Risk Neutral Strategy

Each signal holds long/short, risk/volatility-neutral futures contracts across asset classes, and must clear in- and out-of-sample thresholds before inclusion. The signals are combined at equal risk weight, then scaled back for cross-signal beta so no single factor dominates. The result is many small, diversified edges with a low relationship to market beta and to traditional managed-futures strategies.

analysed 2026-07-10

Core Scenario Analysis

Headline performance and risk statistics for the signal, shown across a range of historical scenarios and sub-samples — full history, in- and out-of-sample, the Global Financial Crisis, the market-regime splits, a one-day execution lag, and long-only / short-only variants. Green and red shading flag the most and least favourable outcome in each row.

  Full History In Sample Out Sample GFC Regime 0 Regime 1 1 day lag Short only Long only
start date 2000-01-03 2000-01-03 2020-01-06 2008-09-01 2001-01-01 2000-01-03 2000-01-03 2000-01-03 2000-01-03
end date 2026-06-01 2019-12-02 2026-06-01 2009-08-03 2026-05-04 2026-06-01 2026-06-01 2026-06-01 2026-06-01
annualized return 16.76% 17.47% 14.58% 8.40% 15.88% 17.82% 16.41% -9.14% 17.68%
annualized std 6.17% 6.04% 6.56% 11.12% 5.59% 6.82% 6.16% 32.58% 31.75%
information ratio 2.557 2.712 2.117 0.778 2.682 2.454 2.511 -0.137 0.685
max drawdown -5.53% -5.53% -5.22% -5.53% -5.22% -5.53% -4.69% -96.54% -88.09%
mdd start date 2008-10-06 2008-10-06 2020-06-01 2008-10-06 2020-06-01 2008-10-06 2008-10-06 2003-02-03 2007-09-03
mdd end date 2009-03-02 2009-03-02 2020-10-05 2009-03-02 2020-10-05 2009-03-02 2008-11-03 2026-06-01 2009-02-02
mdd length 5 5 4 5 4 5 1 280 17
recovery length 13 13 5 5 5 10 95
rec to drawdown 2.600 2.600 1.250 1.250 1.000 10.000 5.588
up periods 78.30% 80.42% 71.79% 58.33% 77.01% 79.86% 77.99% 43.40% 63.52%
down periods 21.70% 19.58% 28.21% 41.67% 22.99% 20.14% 22.01% 56.60% 36.48%
positive streak 16 16 9 3 24 17 18 7 14
negative streak 4 3 4 2 4 3 4 12 8
average gross weight 5.28 5.58 4.39 5.97 5.22 5.36 5.28 2.85 2.43
max gross weight 7.45 7.45 5.26 6.45 6.53 7.45 7.45 4.20 4.51
average net weight -0.42 -0.30 -0.79 -0.15 -0.39 -0.46 -0.42 -2.85 2.43
max net weight 1.85 1.85 1.68 0.64 1.85 1.56 1.85 4.20 4.51
turnover annual 27.26 27.75 25.45 26.24 29.87 30.31 27.26 13.88 13.52
annual transaction cost 1.74% 1.79% 1.61% 1.84% 1.73% 1.75% 1.74% 0.35% 0.34%
datapoints 318 240 78 12 174 144 318 318 318
p value 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.4531 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.4827 0.0005
t test 5pct pass pass pass fail pass pass pass fail pass

Per-signal stats (monthly returns, annualised)

Standalone annualised return, volatility and information ratio for each underlying signal, measured on the monthly returns over their common history, together with the scaler applied to normalise each signal's risk before the signals are combined.

type start months ann_return ann_vol IR signal_scaler target_vol eq_dm eq_em cm fx_dm fx_em fi_dm fi_em
seasonality_eq seasonality 2000-06-05 313 1.6% 1.8% 0.85 1.9 1.2%
dynamic_bond_beta_eq macroeconomic 2000-01-03 318 1.6% 1.9% 0.84 1.1 2.0%
excess_bond_beta_eq macroeconomic 2003-09-01 273 1.9% 2.1% 0.91 1.8 2.0%
excess_bond_beta_reversion_eq macro/value 2003-01-06 282 1.5% 1.6% 0.93 3.8 2.0%
duration_adjusted_carry_fi carry 2000-01-03 317 2.5% 1.6% 1.57 31 1.2%
risk_adjusted_carry_fi carry 2000-01-03 317 1.9% 1.5% 1.29 7.4 1.2%
momentum_risk_adjusted_classic_eq momentum 2000-01-03 318 0.9% 1.0% 0.87 1.1 1.0%
momentum_linear_slope_eq_fi momentum 2000-01-03 318 0.7% 1.0% 0.73 2.5 1.0%
good_skew_eq_cm_fi momentum 2000-01-03 318 1.3% 1.5% 0.89 4.9 1.6%
forecast_reversal_eq_fi value/reversion 2000-01-03 318 1.1% 1.6% 0.68 5.8 2.0%
value_7z_eq_cm value/reversion 2000-01-03 318 1.4% 1.6% 0.86 1 1.6%
cross_asset_z_value macro/value 2000-01-03 318 1.7% 1.8% 0.96 2.7 2.0%

Per-benchmark stats (monthly returns, annualised)

The same annualised return, volatility and information-ratio summary computed for each market and factor benchmark, so the signals above can be compared against conventional exposures on a like-for-like basis.

type start months ann_return ann_vol IR signal_scaler target_vol eq_dm eq_em cm fx_dm fx_em fi_dm fi_em
msci_world 2012-01-02 174 10.8% 14.7% 0.73
msci_acwi 2008-04-07 219 7.9% 19.0% 0.42
us_agg 2003-10-06 273 -0.0% 4.4% -0.01
wti_crude 2000-01-03 318 11.0% 37.4% 0.29
vix 2000-01-03 318 41.3% 109.0% 0.38
dxy 2000-01-03 318 0.3% 7.6% 0.04
sdmf 2026-02-02 5 2.3% 8.7% 0.26
eq_united_states 2000-01-03 318 7.7% 17.2% 0.45

Return Charts

Cumulative performance, drawdown and rolling risk-adjusted return profiles for the signal against its benchmark, illustrating how the strategy has compounded and behaved through time.

Weight & Return Contributions

Per-instrument breakdown of average and latest portfolio weights, contribution to annualised return, and activity statistics, showing which markets drive the strategy. The charts below track net weight through time by asset classification and by region.

  avg_weight last_weight annual_return_contrib pct_of_total_return time_long_pct time_short_pct time_active_pct win_ratio
label                
cm_aluminum -0.002 0.000 0.01% 0.04% 8.18% 19.81% 27.99% 53.93%
cm_cocoa 0.000 0.000 0.03% 0.12% 17.30% 16.35% 33.65% 49.53%
cm_coffee -0.001 0.000 0.04% 0.20% 15.72% 22.64% 38.36% 54.10%
cm_copper -0.001 0.000 -0.01% -0.05% 12.58% 17.30% 29.87% 55.79%
cm_corn -0.001 0.000 -0.02% -0.09% 17.61% 19.18% 36.79% 46.15%
cm_cotton -0.000 0.000 0.05% 0.23% 15.09% 15.09% 30.19% 55.21%
cm_crudebrent 0.000 0.000 0.04% 0.20% 11.64% 11.01% 22.64% 48.61%
cm_crudewti 0.001 0.000 0.06% 0.25% 14.15% 11.32% 25.47% 46.91%
cm_feedercattle 0.001 0.000 0.02% 0.07% 17.92% 12.89% 30.82% 47.96%
cm_gasoil -0.000 -0.009 0.08% 0.37% 13.52% 12.89% 26.42% 48.81%
cm_gasolinerbob -0.001 0.000 0.01% 0.06% 8.18% 10.69% 18.87% 46.67%
cm_gold -0.003 0.000 -0.01% -0.07% 13.21% 21.70% 34.91% 50.45%
cm_heatingoil -0.000 -0.011 0.09% 0.43% 15.09% 12.26% 27.36% 50.57%
cm_lead -0.001 0.015 0.03% 0.15% 11.32% 17.92% 29.25% 52.69%
cm_leanhogs -0.000 0.000 0.08% 0.38% 23.90% 25.47% 49.37% 52.87%
cm_livecattle 0.001 0.000 0.06% 0.26% 18.87% 15.41% 34.28% 50.46%
cm_naturalgas -0.001 -0.006 0.12% 0.53% 12.26% 16.35% 28.62% 60.44%
cm_nickel -0.001 0.000 0.04% 0.16% 10.69% 17.92% 28.62% 52.75%
cm_orangejuice -0.001 -0.004 0.01% 0.04% 12.89% 17.92% 30.82% 47.96%
cm_palladium -0.001 0.000 -0.01% -0.05% 11.01% 16.98% 27.99% 51.69%
cm_platinum 0.000 0.000 0.04% 0.20% 16.04% 15.09% 31.13% 46.46%
cm_redwheat -0.002 0.000 -0.04% -0.20% 11.64% 19.18% 30.82% 45.92%
cm_silver 0.001 -0.006 -0.02% -0.10% 14.78% 18.87% 33.65% 47.66%
cm_soybeanmeal 0.000 0.000 0.11% 0.52% 15.72% 12.89% 28.62% 48.35%
cm_soybeanoil -0.000 0.008 0.01% 0.03% 10.69% 12.26% 22.96% 52.05%
cm_soybeans 0.001 0.000 0.06% 0.28% 18.24% 11.64% 29.87% 52.63%
cm_sugar -0.002 -0.009 0.07% 0.33% 15.72% 26.10% 41.82% 58.65%
cm_tin 0.001 0.000 0.09% 0.41% 18.55% 16.35% 34.91% 48.65%
cm_wheat -0.001 0.000 0.06% 0.25% 14.15% 18.24% 32.39% 52.43%
cm_zinc -0.001 0.000 0.05% 0.21% 8.18% 14.15% 22.33% 43.66%
eq_australia -0.024 -0.046 0.10% 0.44% 41.19% 58.18% 99.37% 6.96%
eq_austria 0.006 0.014 0.30% 1.38% 44.03% 34.91% 78.93% 58.96%
eq_belgium -0.001 0.033 0.22% 1.00% 48.74% 48.74% 97.48% 51.29%
eq_brazil -0.001 -0.033 0.15% 0.67% 46.54% 46.86% 93.40% 33.67%
eq_canada 0.003 -0.037 0.23% 1.06% 49.69% 48.43% 98.11% 54.81%
eq_chile -0.008 -0.005 0.07% 0.30% 19.50% 34.91% 54.40% 52.60%
eq_china 0.000 0.009 0.50% 2.25% 50.63% 47.17% 97.80% 40.84%
eq_colombia -0.002 -0.006 0.27% 1.21% 15.41% 16.35% 31.76% 51.49%
eq_czech_republic 0.002 0.010 0.26% 1.20% 48.74% 45.60% 94.34% 53.00%
eq_denmark 0.008 -0.043 0.63% 2.86% 44.97% 41.51% 86.48% 55.27%
eq_egypt 0.007 0.015 0.45% 2.03% 48.43% 32.39% 80.82% 54.86%
eq_euro_area -0.001 0.016 0.05% 0.24% 42.45% 40.57% 83.02% 45.08%
eq_finland 0.012 0.040 -0.04% -0.18% 61.01% 37.42% 98.43% 48.24%
eq_france 0.001 0.030 0.16% 0.74% 50.31% 48.11% 98.43% 51.44%
eq_germany 0.018 -0.055 0.45% 2.03% 68.55% 30.50% 99.06% 56.51%
eq_greece -0.009 -0.014 0.75% 3.40% 20.13% 32.70% 52.83% 53.57%
eq_hong_kong -0.008 0.050 0.44% 2.00% 44.34% 55.66% 100.00% 55.35%
eq_hungary 0.010 0.008 0.81% 3.67% 44.34% 33.02% 77.36% 63.01%
eq_india 0.004 -0.028 0.14% 0.62% 55.35% 43.08% 98.43% 57.51%
eq_indonesia -0.001 -0.006 0.08% 0.35% 48.11% 49.06% 97.17% 49.84%
eq_ireland -0.015 -0.051 0.07% 0.33% 5.66% 11.01% 16.67% 45.28%
eq_israel 0.005 -0.039 1.12% 5.07% 32.08% 22.01% 54.09% 11.05%
eq_italy -0.014 0.023 0.58% 2.64% 36.79% 57.86% 94.65% 53.49%
eq_japan 0.010 -0.005 0.45% 2.03% 57.55% 41.19% 98.74% 57.32%
eq_korea_south 0.003 0.035 0.39% 1.79% 49.37% 43.40% 92.77% 46.44%
eq_kuwait 0.008 -0.012 0.11% 0.49% 17.30% 8.49% 25.79% 54.88%
eq_malaysia -0.015 0.055 0.17% 0.76% 38.68% 57.86% 96.54% 9.77%
eq_mexico 0.001 -0.016 0.35% 1.59% 47.48% 45.91% 93.40% 3.70%
eq_netherlands -0.002 0.049 0.15% 0.70% 49.69% 47.48% 97.17% 50.16%
eq_new_zealand 0.005 -0.099 0.25% 1.12% 38.36% 33.65% 72.01% 49.78%
eq_norway 0.019 -0.024 0.39% 1.77% 63.52% 35.22% 98.74% 56.05%
eq_philippines -0.007 -0.015 0.21% 0.95% 40.25% 54.72% 94.97% 31.46%
eq_poland -0.006 -0.037 0.07% 0.31% 37.11% 55.66% 92.77% 48.81%
eq_portugal -0.027 -0.064 -0.02% -0.10% 28.30% 60.06% 88.36% 54.45%
eq_qatar -0.003 0.049 0.12% 0.56% 15.09% 17.92% 33.02% 53.33%
eq_saudi_arabia 0.009 0.019 0.74% 3.37% 52.83% 44.97% 97.80% 61.41%
eq_singapore -0.011 -0.017 0.33% 1.49% 41.19% 57.86% 99.06% 52.06%
eq_south_africa 0.002 0.035 -0.11% -0.51% 39.31% 31.13% 70.44% 46.43%
eq_spain -0.016 0.011 0.12% 0.53% 34.59% 65.09% 99.69% 50.16%
eq_sweden -0.000 0.022 0.07% 0.30% 47.48% 49.69% 97.17% 48.87%
eq_switzerland 0.004 -0.034 -0.36% -1.65% 54.40% 44.97% 99.37% 7.91%
eq_taiwan 0.009 0.032 0.15% 0.66% 58.18% 38.36% 96.54% 44.30%
eq_thailand 0.001 0.057 0.16% 0.73% 47.48% 48.43% 95.91% 41.64%
eq_turkey 0.009 -0.009 0.68% 3.07% 60.06% 35.85% 95.91% 57.70%
eq_uae -0.000 0.000 0.13% 0.60% 32.08% 31.76% 63.84% 56.16%
eq_united_kingdom -0.023 -0.022 0.26% 1.20% 35.85% 62.58% 98.43% 52.08%
eq_united_states 0.011 0.031 0.75% 3.41% 60.69% 38.68% 99.37% 57.28%
fi_australia_yield_10y 0.000 0.000 0.07% 0.33% 7.86% 5.97% 13.84% 0.00%
fi_australia_yield_2y 0.390 -0.03% -0.15% 95.60% 0.00% 95.60% 4.28%
fi_australia_yield_5y 0.036 0.00% 0.00% 40.57% 0.00% 40.57% 0.00%
fi_austria_yield_10y 0.002 0.000 0.08% 0.35% 6.29% 3.77% 10.06% 56.25%
fi_austria_yield_2y -0.039 0.11% 0.50% 15.09% 38.68% 53.77% 50.88%
fi_austria_yield_5y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.31% 0.00% 0.31% 0.00%
fi_belgium_yield_10y 0.002 0.000 0.12% 0.54% 4.72% 2.52% 7.23% 52.17%
fi_belgium_yield_2y 0.072 0.06% 0.29% 44.34% 0.00% 44.34% 50.35%
fi_belgium_yield_5y 0.001 0.00% 0.00% 0.94% 0.00% 0.94% 0.00%
fi_brazil_yield_10y -0.001 0.000 -0.04% -0.20% 0.31% 0.94% 1.26% 50.00%
fi_brazil_yield_2y 0.092 0.22% 1.00% 26.73% 0.00% 26.73% 35.29%
fi_brazil_yield_5y -0.001 -0.00% -0.02% 2.52% 6.92% 9.43% 40.00%
fi_canada_yield_10y -0.000 0.000 0.08% 0.35% 6.29% 5.03% 11.32% 50.00%
fi_canada_yield_2y 0.059 0.06% 0.25% 38.36% 0.00% 38.36% 53.28%
fi_canada_yield_5y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_chile_yield_10y -0.002 0.000 0.05% 0.25% 0.31% 1.57% 1.89% 66.67%
fi_chile_yield_2y -0.073 -0.07% -0.33% 0.00% 12.58% 12.58% 42.50%
fi_chile_yield_5y -0.005 0.01% 0.06% 0.00% 5.66% 5.66% 61.11%
fi_china_yield_10y -0.008 0.000 0.17% 0.79% 3.46% 12.58% 16.04% 50.98%
fi_china_yield_2y -0.264 0.27% 1.22% 0.00% 66.04% 66.04% 48.10%
fi_china_yield_5y -0.006 0.01% 0.04% 0.00% 8.49% 8.49% 62.96%
fi_colombia_yield_10y 0.002 0.000 0.12% 0.56% 1.89% 0.63% 2.52% 75.00%
fi_colombia_yield_5y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_czech_republic_yield_10y 0.000 0.063 0.04% 0.17% 6.29% 7.55% 13.84% 54.55%
fi_czech_republic_yield_2y -0.535 1.44% 6.54% 0.00% 91.51% 91.51% 69.07%
fi_czech_republic_yield_5y -0.060 0.19% 0.87% 0.00% 35.85% 35.85% 55.26%
fi_denmark_yield_10y 0.005 0.000 0.14% 0.61% 6.92% 2.52% 9.43% 63.33%
fi_denmark_yield_2y 0.019 0.09% 0.41% 19.81% 10.38% 30.19% 63.54%
fi_denmark_yield_5y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_finland_yield_10y 0.003 0.000 -0.01% -0.07% 6.29% 2.83% 9.12% 55.17%
fi_finland_yield_2y -0.052 0.02% 0.07% 0.00% 38.99% 38.99% 46.77%
fi_finland_yield_5y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_france_yield_10y -0.002 0.000 -0.03% -0.14% 2.52% 3.46% 5.97% 42.11%
fi_france_yield_2y 0.044 0.06% 0.28% 26.42% 0.00% 26.42% 47.62%
fi_france_yield_5y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_germany_yield_10y -0.002 0.000 -0.04% -0.19% 3.14% 4.40% 7.55% 41.67%
fi_germany_yield_2y 0.041 0.11% 0.49% 26.42% 7.55% 33.96% 50.93%
fi_germany_yield_5y -0.001 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.57% 1.57% 0.00%
fi_greece_yield_10y -0.004 0.000 0.08% 0.38% 13.84% 15.09% 28.93% 54.35%
fi_greece_yield_2y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_greece_yield_5y -0.001 0.03% 0.13% 3.46% 2.20% 5.66% 61.11%
fi_hong_kong_yield_10y 0.001 0.000 0.05% 0.23% 5.03% 6.29% 11.32% 44.44%
fi_hong_kong_yield_2y -0.024 0.04% 0.20% 0.00% 4.09% 4.09% 61.54%
fi_hong_kong_yield_5y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_hungary_yield_10y 0.005 0.000 0.01% 0.03% 9.75% 3.46% 13.21% 64.29%
fi_hungary_yield_5y -0.009 -0.01% -0.03% 0.00% 12.26% 12.26% 46.15%
fi_india_yield_10y 0.002 0.000 0.06% 0.28% 11.01% 8.49% 19.50% 58.06%
fi_india_yield_2y -0.075 0.02% 0.09% 1.89% 47.48% 49.37% 50.96%
fi_india_yield_5y -0.000 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.31% 0.31% 100.00%
fi_indonesia_yield_10y 0.002 0.105 0.01% 0.03% 6.60% 3.14% 9.75% 41.94%
fi_indonesia_yield_5y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_ireland_yield_10y 0.003 0.000 0.11% 0.50% 9.75% 7.86% 17.61% 55.36%
fi_ireland_yield_2y -0.073 0.07% 0.30% 3.77% 31.13% 34.91% 53.15%
fi_ireland_yield_5y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_israel_yield_10y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_israel_yield_2y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_israel_yield_5y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_italy_yield_10y 0.002 0.000 -0.01% -0.02% 4.40% 5.03% 9.43% 53.33%
fi_italy_yield_2y 0.052 0.10% 0.47% 34.28% 0.00% 34.28% 60.55%
fi_italy_yield_5y -0.001 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.63% 0.63% 0.00%
fi_japan_yield_10y 0.008 -0.059 0.06% 0.29% 5.97% 5.97% 11.95% 68.42%
fi_japan_yield_2y 0.096 0.01% 0.04% 72.01% 5.66% 77.67% 51.82%
fi_japan_yield_5y 0.018 -0.00% -0.02% 31.76% 0.00% 31.76% 45.54%
fi_korea_south_yield_10y 0.002 0.000 0.03% 0.14% 3.77% 3.46% 7.23% 60.87%
fi_korea_south_yield_2y -0.014 0.02% 0.09% 25.79% 17.61% 43.40% 42.75%
fi_korea_south_yield_5y -0.022 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% 26.10% 26.10% 15.66%
fi_malaysia_yield_10y 0.000 0.000 -0.01% -0.06% 5.35% 6.60% 11.95% 5.26%
fi_malaysia_yield_5y -0.027 0.00% 0.01% 4.72% 27.04% 31.76% 6.93%
fi_mexico_yield_10y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_mexico_yield_5y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_netherlands_yield_10y 0.002 -0.097 0.01% 0.04% 3.14% 1.57% 4.72% 40.00%
fi_netherlands_yield_2y 0.009 0.04% 0.16% 11.32% 5.35% 16.67% 41.51%
fi_netherlands_yield_5y -0.001 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.94% 0.94% 0.00%
fi_new_zealand_yield_10y -0.002 0.000 0.02% 0.08% 0.63% 1.57% 2.20% 42.86%
fi_new_zealand_yield_2y -0.085 -0.05% -0.23% 0.00% 33.02% 33.02% 57.14%
fi_new_zealand_yield_5y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_norway_yield_10y -0.000 0.000 -0.00% -0.01% 3.46% 3.14% 6.60% 42.86%
fi_norway_yield_5y 0.031 0.18% 0.80% 28.93% 0.00% 28.93% 54.35%
fi_philippines_yield_10y 0.001 0.000 0.09% 0.41% 16.35% 15.09% 31.45% 35.00%
fi_philippines_yield_2y 0.070 0.06% 0.28% 40.25% 0.00% 40.25% 28.12%
fi_philippines_yield_5y 0.013 0.00% 0.00% 16.98% 0.00% 16.98% 0.00%
fi_poland_yield_10y 0.000 0.056 0.07% 0.30% 2.83% 4.40% 7.23% 56.52%
fi_poland_yield_2y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_poland_yield_5y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_portugal_yield_10y -0.000 0.095 0.09% 0.41% 6.60% 6.92% 13.52% 60.47%
fi_portugal_yield_2y 0.029 0.32% 1.46% 23.58% 0.00% 23.58% 66.67%
fi_portugal_yield_5y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_singapore_yield_10y 0.001 0.000 0.11% 0.48% 8.18% 8.18% 16.35% 44.23%
fi_singapore_yield_2y 0.037 0.04% 0.18% 20.75% 6.29% 27.04% 51.16%
fi_singapore_yield_5y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_south_africa_yield_10y 0.007 0.000 0.05% 0.22% 10.69% 1.26% 11.95% 57.89%
fi_south_africa_yield_5y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_spain_yield_10y 0.001 0.000 0.03% 0.14% 4.09% 4.72% 8.81% 46.43%
fi_spain_yield_2y 0.026 0.13% 0.57% 21.38% 5.03% 26.42% 65.48%
fi_spain_yield_5y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_sweden_yield_10y 0.000 0.000 0.08% 0.37% 1.26% 0.94% 2.20% 71.43%
fi_sweden_yield_2y -0.041 0.03% 0.12% 0.63% 31.76% 32.39% 55.34%
fi_sweden_yield_5y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_switzerland_yield_10y -0.015 0.000 0.11% 0.49% 2.20% 29.87% 32.08% 4.90%
fi_switzerland_yield_2y -0.268 0.37% 1.66% 0.00% 90.88% 90.88% 6.57%
fi_switzerland_yield_5y -0.026 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 39.31% 39.31% 0.00%
fi_taiwan_yield_10y -0.006 0.189 0.06% 0.26% 2.83% 4.40% 7.23% 73.91%
fi_taiwan_yield_2y -0.075 0.04% 0.19% 0.00% 14.78% 14.78% 59.57%
fi_taiwan_yield_5y -0.006 0.01% 0.03% 0.00% 4.72% 4.72% 53.33%
fi_thailand_yield_10y 0.006 0.12% 0.52% 12.89% 9.12% 22.01% 50.00%
fi_thailand_yield_2y -0.050 0.17% 0.75% 0.00% 8.18% 8.18% 38.46%
fi_thailand_yield_5y 0.000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
fi_turkey_yield_10y 0.005 0.000 0.21% 0.94% 11.64% 4.72% 16.35% 55.77%
fi_turkey_yield_2y 0.112 1.10% 5.01% 56.29% 0.00% 56.29% 68.72%
fi_turkey_yield_5y 0.011 0.07% 0.31% 14.47% 0.00% 14.47% 67.39%
fi_united_kingdom_yield_10y -0.012 0.000 -0.00% -0.00% 4.09% 20.13% 24.21% 48.05%
fi_united_kingdom_yield_2y -0.014 -0.01% -0.05% 7.86% 14.47% 22.33% 49.30%
fi_united_kingdom_yield_5y -0.009 -0.01% -0.05% 0.00% 11.95% 11.95% 47.37%
fi_united_states_yield_10y 0.003 0.000 0.06% 0.26% 7.86% 7.23% 15.09% 54.17%
fi_united_states_yield_2y 0.080 0.06% 0.27% 52.20% 0.00% 52.20% 53.01%
fi_united_states_yield_5y 0.001 0.01% 0.03% 1.26% 0.00% 1.26% 75.00%
cm -0.012 -0.021 1.09% 4.97% 39.94% 60.06% 100.00% 58.81%
eq_dm -0.028 -0.217 5.53% 25.14% 45.91% 54.09% 100.00% 67.92%
eq_em 0.016 0.143 4.83% 21.93% 56.60% 43.40% 100.00% 69.18%
fi_dm 0.441 -0.061 2.23% 10.13% 80.50% 19.50% 100.00% 59.75%
fi_em -0.841 0.412 3.72% 16.88% 6.29% 93.71% 100.00% 66.04%
cm_energy -0.000 -0.026 0.40% 1.82% 34.59% 38.99% 73.58% 56.41%
cm_grains -0.002 0.008 0.15% 0.66% 38.68% 42.45% 81.13% 50.39%
cm_industrial_metals -0.004 0.015 0.20% 0.92% 34.59% 48.74% 83.33% 55.85%
cm_livestock 0.002 0.000 0.15% 0.68% 39.94% 32.70% 72.64% 50.65%
cm_precious_metals -0.003 -0.006 -0.01% -0.03% 29.25% 42.45% 71.70% 54.39%
cm_softs -0.005 -0.012 0.20% 0.91% 32.39% 52.52% 84.91% 54.81%
eq_americas 0.009 -0.067 1.24% 5.64% 54.09% 45.91% 100.00% 58.81%
eq_apac -0.035 0.022 2.72% 12.35% 44.65% 55.35% 100.00% 62.58%
eq_emea 0.014 -0.030 6.40% 29.08% 50.63% 49.37% 100.00% 67.30%
fi_americas 0.187 0.000 0.40% 1.84% 67.30% 20.75% 88.05% 54.64%
fi_apac 0.105 0.234 1.03% 4.68% 60.38% 39.62% 100.00% 56.92%
fi_emea -0.692 0.117 4.51% 20.50% 13.21% 86.79% 100.00% 72.33%

Ex-Asset Sensitivity Analysis

A robustness check that re-runs the strategy with one instrument removed at a time and reports the resulting performance and significance statistics. Stable results across exclusions indicate the strategy does not rely on any single market.

  start date end date annualized return annualized std information ratio max drawdown average gross weight max gross weight average net weight max net weight turnover annual annual transaction cost datapoints p value t test 5pct
ex-eq_australia 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.14% 6.33% 2.409 -6.10% 5.25 7.47 -0.42 1.88 26.89 1.72% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_austria 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.83% 6.10% 2.599 -5.56% 5.29 7.45 -0.43 1.85 27.27 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_belgium 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.60% 6.10% 2.566 -5.93% 5.26 7.41 -0.43 1.86 27.01 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_canada 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.69% 6.20% 2.538 -5.25% 5.26 7.24 -0.43 1.90 26.98 1.72% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_denmark 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.30% 6.13% 2.507 -5.81% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.82 27.23 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_euro_area 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.72% 6.17% 2.551 -6.13% 5.28 7.42 -0.42 1.86 27.15 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_finland 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.81% 6.18% 2.560 -5.66% 5.28 7.42 -0.43 1.85 27.15 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_france 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.56% 6.20% 2.519 -5.86% 5.27 7.51 -0.43 1.85 27.10 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_germany 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.47% 6.21% 2.500 -5.56% 5.28 7.42 -0.42 1.89 27.18 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_hong_kong 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 15.93% 6.08% 2.476 -5.52% 5.28 7.45 -0.43 1.86 27.15 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_ireland 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.71% 6.15% 2.557 -5.53% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.30 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_israel 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.67% 6.19% 2.537 -5.62% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.25 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_italy 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.30% 6.08% 2.530 -5.61% 5.28 7.47 -0.43 1.87 27.23 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_japan 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.16% 6.22% 2.453 -6.72% 5.28 7.41 -0.43 1.86 27.22 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_netherlands 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.68% 6.14% 2.559 -5.06% 5.28 7.38 -0.42 1.87 27.13 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_new_zealand 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.58% 6.16% 2.537 -5.37% 5.27 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.02 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_norway 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.35% 6.14% 2.511 -6.10% 5.28 7.36 -0.43 1.92 27.16 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_portugal 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.39% 6.07% 2.547 -5.49% 5.28 7.46 -0.44 1.83 27.17 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_singapore 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.30% 6.02% 2.554 -5.38% 5.27 7.43 -0.43 1.90 27.10 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_spain 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.47% 6.09% 2.551 -5.80% 5.27 7.40 -0.43 1.86 27.14 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_sweden 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.69% 6.26% 2.511 -5.78% 5.28 7.47 -0.43 1.85 27.23 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_switzerland 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.56% 6.06% 2.574 -5.41% 5.27 7.42 -0.43 1.90 27.04 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_united_kingdom 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.42% 6.18% 2.508 -5.21% 5.26 7.34 -0.42 1.86 26.96 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_united_states 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 15.99% 6.21% 2.434 -5.59% 5.27 7.45 -0.42 1.88 27.11 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_brazil 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.83% 6.21% 2.551 -6.69% 5.28 7.40 -0.42 1.85 27.23 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_chile 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.559 -5.39% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_china 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.73% 6.24% 2.526 -5.85% 5.28 7.42 -0.42 1.86 27.19 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_colombia 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.68% 6.17% 2.547 -5.53% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.25 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_czech_republic 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.64% 6.17% 2.540 -5.39% 5.27 7.40 -0.42 1.88 27.06 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_egypt 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.36% 6.10% 2.529 -5.45% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.88 27.32 1.75% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_greece 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.34% 6.16% 2.503 -6.02% 5.29 7.45 -0.43 1.85 27.30 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_hungary 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.37% 6.16% 2.504 -5.92% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.20 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_india 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.51% 6.08% 2.561 -5.01% 5.28 7.39 -0.42 1.86 27.17 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_indonesia 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.68% 6.22% 2.526 -6.06% 5.28 7.40 -0.42 1.88 27.11 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_korea_south 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.46% 6.19% 2.508 -6.18% 5.28 7.40 -0.42 1.86 27.18 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_kuwait 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.74% 6.17% 2.555 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.25 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_malaysia 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.65% 6.16% 2.545 -6.69% 5.25 7.44 -0.42 1.87 26.95 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_mexico 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.82% 6.24% 2.538 -6.17% 5.28 7.40 -0.42 1.84 27.17 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_philippines 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.69% 6.08% 2.586 -5.42% 5.27 7.37 -0.42 1.84 27.08 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_poland 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.68% 6.12% 2.567 -5.75% 5.28 7.41 -0.42 1.88 27.17 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_qatar 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.72% 6.15% 2.561 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.43 1.85 27.25 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_saudi_arabia 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 15.81% 6.00% 2.490 -5.51% 5.27 7.30 -0.43 1.79 27.21 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_south_africa 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.80% 6.19% 2.558 -5.45% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.24 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_taiwan 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 17.12% 6.18% 2.607 -5.70% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.87 27.14 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_thailand 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.79% 6.04% 2.616 -5.43% 5.28 7.35 -0.42 1.86 27.11 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_turkey 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.36% 6.04% 2.553 -5.19% 5.28 7.31 -0.42 1.86 27.20 1.75% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-eq_uae 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.54% 6.17% 2.526 -5.71% 5.28 7.45 -0.43 1.85 27.20 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_australia_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.58% 6.14% 2.544 -5.22% 5.28 7.40 -0.42 1.85 27.11 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_austria_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.74% 6.18% 2.552 -5.78% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.08 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_belgium_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.74% 6.15% 2.562 -5.39% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.14 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_canada_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.64% 6.17% 2.540 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.73 27.10 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_denmark_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.78% 6.22% 2.540 -5.40% 5.28 7.45 -0.43 1.85 27.18 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_finland_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.77% 6.15% 2.566 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.12 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_france_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.82% 6.15% 2.572 -5.29% 5.28 7.20 -0.42 1.85 27.12 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_germany_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.71% 6.17% 2.552 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.14 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_hong_kong_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.73% 6.16% 2.559 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.95 27.16 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_ireland_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.84% 6.21% 2.555 -5.20% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.17 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_israel_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.556 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_italy_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.83% 6.20% 2.555 -5.64% 5.28 7.51 -0.43 1.85 27.17 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_japan_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.74% 6.19% 2.548 -5.41% 5.26 7.45 -0.43 1.85 26.96 1.72% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_netherlands_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.81% 6.19% 2.557 -5.28% 5.28 7.45 -0.43 1.85 27.21 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_new_zealand_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.74% 6.17% 2.554 -5.53% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_norway_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.80% 6.14% 2.574 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.14 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_portugal_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.70% 6.16% 2.553 -5.30% 5.28 7.47 -0.42 1.85 27.17 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_singapore_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.82% 6.18% 2.561 -5.11% 5.27 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.17 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_spain_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.74% 6.19% 2.546 -6.19% 5.28 7.46 -0.43 1.85 27.14 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_sweden_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.70% 6.18% 2.545 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.25 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_switzerland_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.78% 6.14% 2.574 -5.39% 5.29 7.45 -0.43 1.72 27.13 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_united_kingdom_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.74% 6.20% 2.544 -5.86% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.72 27.21 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_united_states_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.71% 6.20% 2.539 -5.59% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.16 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_brazil_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.78% 6.17% 2.560 -5.53% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.27 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_chile_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.75% 6.18% 2.554 -5.53% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.25 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_china_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.75% 6.13% 2.573 -5.41% 5.27 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.07 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_colombia_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.75% 6.17% 2.556 -5.53% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.27 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_czech_republic_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.67% 6.18% 2.539 -5.76% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.89 27.16 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_greece_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.66% 6.15% 2.551 -5.46% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.24 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_hungary_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.75% 6.24% 2.529 -5.39% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.28 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_india_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.68% 6.17% 2.546 -5.28% 5.27 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.12 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_indonesia_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.77% 6.17% 2.560 -5.40% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.25 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_korea_south_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.72% 6.14% 2.566 -5.46% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.17 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_malaysia_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.71% 6.18% 2.547 -6.07% 5.28 7.45 -0.43 1.85 27.10 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_mexico_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.75% 6.17% 2.556 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_philippines_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.79% 6.21% 2.544 -6.01% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.23 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_poland_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.70% 6.18% 2.547 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.25 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_south_africa_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.18% 2.553 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.30 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_taiwan_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.77% 6.16% 2.561 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.13 1.73% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_thailand_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.63% 6.19% 2.532 -5.96% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.15 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_turkey_yield_10y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.65% 6.13% 2.560 -5.53% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.30 1.75% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_australia_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.84% 6.19% 2.562 -5.20% 5.32 7.51 -0.39 1.85 27.34 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_austria_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.25 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_belgium_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.558 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.25 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_canada_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_denmark_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_finland_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_france_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_germany_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.25 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_hong_kong_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_ireland_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_israel_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_italy_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.25 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_japan_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.83% 6.18% 2.564 -5.38% 5.30 7.45 -0.40 1.85 27.32 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_netherlands_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.25 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_new_zealand_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_norway_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.49% 6.14% 2.530 -5.53% 5.30 7.45 -0.41 1.85 27.29 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_portugal_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_singapore_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_spain_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_sweden_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_switzerland_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.71% 6.17% 2.552 -5.48% 5.29 7.41 -0.43 1.75 27.31 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_united_kingdom_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.74% 6.18% 2.552 -5.53% 5.29 7.41 -0.43 1.75 27.27 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_united_states_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.75% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_brazil_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.73% 6.15% 2.562 -5.42% 5.30 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.27 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_chile_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.75% 6.17% 2.555 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_china_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.74% 6.17% 2.555 -5.53% 5.29 7.45 -0.43 1.85 27.25 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_colombia_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_czech_republic_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.59% 6.17% 2.535 -5.53% 5.37 7.45 -0.51 1.85 27.28 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_greece_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.77% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.84 27.25 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_hungary_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.77% 6.18% 2.553 -5.53% 5.29 7.45 -0.43 1.85 27.27 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_india_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.75% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.27 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_indonesia_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_korea_south_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.71% 6.16% 2.554 -5.53% 5.32 7.98 -0.46 1.68 27.27 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_malaysia_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.75% 6.19% 2.550 -5.48% 5.30 7.45 -0.43 1.85 27.28 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_mexico_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_philippines_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.34 7.45 -0.36 1.85 27.22 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_poland_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_south_africa_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_taiwan_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.73% 6.17% 2.552 -5.53% 5.29 7.45 -0.43 1.85 27.27 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_thailand_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_turkey_yield_5y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.71% 6.18% 2.547 -5.53% 5.32 7.45 -0.39 1.85 27.29 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_australia_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.92% 6.23% 2.558 -5.20% 5.13 6.88 -0.58 1.88 27.28 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_austria_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.72% 6.14% 2.563 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.21 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_belgium_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.65% 6.16% 2.546 -5.62% 5.27 7.34 -0.43 1.76 27.25 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_canada_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.55% 6.16% 2.533 -5.53% 5.27 7.31 -0.44 1.76 27.22 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_denmark_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.71% 6.16% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.34 -0.43 1.76 27.20 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_finland_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.16% 2.561 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.28 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_france_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.18% 2.552 -5.68% 5.28 7.34 -0.43 1.76 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_germany_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.61% 6.14% 2.549 -5.86% 5.26 7.30 -0.43 1.85 27.23 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_hong_kong_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.74% 6.17% 2.556 -5.53% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.27 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_ireland_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.75% 6.15% 2.565 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.29 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_israel_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_italy_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.60% 6.16% 2.538 -5.58% 5.28 7.45 -0.43 1.85 27.23 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_japan_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.75% 6.17% 2.557 -5.42% 5.26 7.35 -0.43 1.76 27.24 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_netherlands_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.73% 6.17% 2.553 -5.53% 5.28 7.30 -0.42 1.85 27.25 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_new_zealand_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.80% 6.16% 2.565 -5.22% 5.26 7.45 -0.40 1.85 27.28 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_portugal_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.51% 6.10% 2.553 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.43 1.85 27.16 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_singapore_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.77% 6.19% 2.552 -5.53% 5.28 7.16 -0.42 1.68 27.28 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_spain_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.62% 6.13% 2.555 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.43 1.85 27.17 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_sweden_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.73% 6.16% 2.559 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.41 1.85 27.24 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_switzerland_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.72% 6.17% 2.553 -5.72% 5.19 7.05 -0.33 1.96 27.23 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_united_kingdom_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.80% 6.18% 2.558 -5.53% 5.27 7.30 -0.41 1.85 27.24 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_united_states_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.67% 6.18% 2.540 -5.53% 5.27 7.34 -0.44 1.76 27.33 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_brazil_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.69% 6.15% 2.556 -5.53% 5.26 7.45 -0.45 1.85 27.30 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_chile_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.78% 6.18% 2.555 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_china_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.70% 6.28% 2.506 -5.39% 5.23 7.45 -0.37 1.85 27.21 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_czech_republic_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 15.24% 6.15% 2.349 -5.48% 5.25 7.45 -0.39 2.20 27.40 1.75% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_greece_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_india_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.74% 6.16% 2.558 -5.22% 5.26 7.73 -0.40 1.74 27.23 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_korea_south_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.55% 6.14% 2.539 -5.53% 5.27 7.52 -0.42 1.67 27.29 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_philippines_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.81% 6.20% 2.554 -5.42% 5.33 7.45 -0.38 1.85 27.19 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_poland_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.557 -5.53% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_taiwan_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.73% 6.19% 2.548 -5.53% 5.27 7.45 -0.41 1.85 27.27 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_thailand_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.70% 6.16% 2.553 -5.53% 5.30 7.45 -0.44 1.85 27.17 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-fi_turkey_yield_2y 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 15.76% 6.00% 2.483 -5.53% 5.31 7.45 -0.39 1.92 27.36 1.75% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_aluminum 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.74% 6.14% 2.568 -5.34% 5.28 7.43 -0.42 1.85 27.21 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_cocoa 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.558 -5.50% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.21 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_coffee 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.560 -5.63% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.24 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_copper 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.78% 6.19% 2.553 -5.52% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.23 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_corn 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.79% 6.21% 2.545 -5.65% 5.28 7.43 -0.42 1.85 27.24 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_cotton 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.67% 6.15% 2.553 -5.69% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_crudebrent 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.71% 6.16% 2.554 -5.57% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.25 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_crudewti 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.72% 6.19% 2.545 -5.30% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.27 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_feedercattle 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.16% 2.562 -5.56% 5.28 7.43 -0.42 1.83 27.19 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_gasoil 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.68% 6.13% 2.564 -5.10% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.22 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_gasolinerbob 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.74% 6.16% 2.560 -5.29% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.26 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_gold 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.78% 6.19% 2.552 -5.37% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.17 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_heatingoil 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.72% 6.15% 2.559 -5.37% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.23 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_lead 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.70% 6.18% 2.545 -5.62% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.24 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_leanhogs 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.66% 6.16% 2.547 -5.62% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.36 1.75% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_livecattle 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.69% 6.17% 2.549 -5.53% 5.28 7.43 -0.42 1.85 27.21 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_naturalgas 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.71% 6.15% 2.558 -5.41% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.27 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_nickel 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.69% 6.18% 2.544 -5.82% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.24 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_orangejuice 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.76% 6.17% 2.559 -5.64% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.86 27.25 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_palladium 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.78% 6.17% 2.560 -5.61% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.87 27.24 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_platinum 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.71% 6.19% 2.544 -5.66% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.23 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_redwheat 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.78% 6.18% 2.556 -5.43% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.24 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_silver 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.81% 6.15% 2.571 -5.64% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.23 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_soybeanmeal 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.71% 6.19% 2.543 -5.58% 5.29 7.45 -0.42 1.87 27.25 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_soybeanoil 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.78% 6.17% 2.560 -5.55% 5.28 7.45 -0.43 1.85 27.25 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_soybeans 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.80% 6.18% 2.558 -5.41% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.22 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_sugar 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.74% 6.14% 2.568 -5.42% 5.29 7.45 -0.43 1.86 27.23 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_tin 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.79% 6.17% 2.562 -5.44% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.20 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_wheat 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.68% 6.19% 2.539 -5.64% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.23 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass
ex-cm_zinc 2000-01-03 2026-06-01 16.77% 6.18% 2.557 -5.60% 5.28 7.45 -0.42 1.85 27.24 1.74% 318 0.0000 pass

Relationships

Correlations and betas of the signal against common market and factor benchmarks. The chart below shows how those relationships evolve on a rolling basis.

Pearson Correlation Kendall Correlation Beta
MSCI World (from Jan 2012) -0.070 -0.008 -0.026
MSCI ACWI (from Apr 2008) -0.084 -0.043 -0.028
US Agg (from Oct 2003) -0.075 0.007 -0.104
WTI Crude -0.052 -0.080 -0.009
VIX 0.062 0.006 0.004
DXY 0.087 0.037 0.071
sdmf (from Feb 2026) 0.361 0.000 0.299
eq_united_states -0.029 -0.025 -0.010

Pearson correlation

Linear (Pearson) correlation of monthly returns between every pair of signals; lower correlations point to a greater diversification benefit when the signals are combined.

Kendall correlation (tau)

Rank-based (Kendall tau) correlation between the signals, which measures monotonic co-movement and is less sensitive to outliers than the Pearson measure above.

Pairwise beta (row signal on column signal)

Pairwise beta of each row signal regressed on each column signal — a directional measure of how strongly one signal's returns load on another.

cell (row i, col j) = Cov(i, j) / Var(j) = beta of the row signal's returns regressed on the column signal's. Asymmetric; diagonal is 1.

Signal vs factor-benchmark relationships

rows = signals, columns = factor benchmarks — each signal's relationship with each benchmark over their pairwise-overlapping months. Beta = Cov(signal, benchmark) / Var(benchmark).

Pearson correlation

Kendall correlation (tau)

Beta (signal on benchmark)

Combined Run Settings

Configuration for this combined-book run, read directly from signals_combine.py so the table always reflects the settings actually used.

ParameterValueDescription
TRADABLE_ONLYFalserestrict the combined book to tradable (IBKR-futures) assets only
TRANSACTION_COSTTruecharge netted transaction costs on the combined book
PORTFOLIO_VOL_TARGET_FLAGFalselever the combined book to a target volatility
PORTFOLIO_VOL_TARGET0.05annualised vol target for the combined book
PORTFOLIO_VOL_TRAILING_MONTHS24trailing window (months) for the book vol estimate
VOL_ESTIMATORewmabook vol estimator (ewma / sma)
VOL_MIN_PERIODS12months of history required before leverage engages
PORTFOLIO_MAX_LEVERAGE1cap on book leverage (None = uncapped)
COMBINE_METHODsumsignal combination method
DEFAULT_TARGET_VOL0.02default per-signal annualised target vol
DEFAULT_MAX_WEIGHTNonedefault cap on a signal's gross weight (None = uncapped)
TARGET_VOL_TRAILING_MONTHS36trailing vol window for a monthly signal
TARGET_VOL_TRAILING_WEEKS156trailing vol window for a weekly signal
COV_TRAILING_MONTHS36trailing window (months) for the signal covariance
COV_SHRINKAGE_METHODnonecovariance shrinkage method
COV_SHRINKAGE0.1fixed shrinkage intensity (used when method = fixed)
OVERRIDE_START_DATE_ENABLEDTruetruncate the analysis window at a start date
OVERRIDE_START_DATE2000-01-01analysis-window start (when enabled)
OVERRIDE_END_DATE_ENABLEDFalsetruncate the analysis window at an end date
OVERRIDE_END_DATE2019-12-31analysis-window end (when enabled)

Appendix - Regime Classification

Supporting detail on the market-regime model used elsewhere in this report: the estimated sentiment factor through time, and the distribution of S&P 500 returns within each identified regime.

Further details on the regime classification approach can be found here