Signal Analysis Dashboard
seasonality_equity_allanalysed 2026-05-26
Core Scenario Analysis
| |
Full History |
In Sample |
Out Sample |
GFC |
Regime 0 |
Regime 1 |
1 day lag |
Short only |
Long only |
| start date |
2000-05-19 |
2000-05-19 |
2020-01-03 |
2008-08-29 |
2000-12-08 |
2000-05-19 |
2000-05-19 |
2000-05-19 |
2000-05-19 |
| end date |
2026-05-15 |
2019-12-27 |
2026-05-15 |
2009-08-28 |
2026-05-15 |
2026-03-27 |
2026-05-15 |
2026-05-15 |
2026-05-15 |
| annualized return |
8.38% |
9.32% |
5.54% |
-3.79% |
12.42% |
3.26% |
8.41% |
-4.61% |
11.54% |
| annualized std |
8.69% |
9.30% |
6.46% |
13.03% |
8.88% |
8.39% |
8.34% |
14.74% |
14.99% |
| information ratio |
0.970 |
1.005 |
0.866 |
-0.233 |
1.364 |
0.424 |
1.010 |
-0.247 |
0.805 |
| max drawdown |
-18.85% |
-18.85% |
-9.41% |
-11.29% |
-9.40% |
-18.45% |
-19.01% |
-87.30% |
-53.70% |
| mdd start date |
2005-09-23 |
2005-09-23 |
2021-10-01 |
2008-08-29 |
2007-06-29 |
2005-10-07 |
2005-09-23 |
2003-02-28 |
2007-10-19 |
| mdd end date |
2006-08-18 |
2006-08-18 |
2022-06-24 |
2009-04-17 |
2007-12-07 |
2008-11-28 |
2006-08-18 |
2026-04-10 |
2009-02-27 |
| mdd length |
47 |
47 |
38 |
33 |
23 |
50 |
47 |
1206 |
71 |
| recovery length |
202 |
202 |
47 |
|
35 |
160 |
193 |
|
184 |
| rec to drawdown |
4.298 |
4.298 |
1.237 |
|
1.522 |
3.200 |
4.106 |
|
2.592 |
| up periods |
55.27% |
55.86% |
53.45% |
49.06% |
56.48% |
53.68% |
55.49% |
43.92% |
58.29% |
| down periods |
44.73% |
44.14% |
46.55% |
50.94% |
43.52% |
46.32% |
44.44% |
56.08% |
41.71% |
| positive streak |
10 |
10 |
10 |
4 |
9 |
11 |
13 |
10 |
13 |
| negative streak |
8 |
7 |
8 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
7 |
13 |
8 |
| turnover annual (%) |
1850.27 |
1911.40 |
1656.84 |
1829.33 |
2367.12 |
2511.19 |
1850.27 |
930.09 |
920.17 |
| datapoints |
1357 |
1024 |
333 |
53 |
772 |
585 |
1357 |
1357 |
1357 |
| p value |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0291 |
0.8148 |
0.0000 |
0.1552 |
0.0000 |
0.2073 |
0.0000 |
| t test 5pct |
pass |
pass |
pass |
fail |
pass |
fail |
pass |
fail |
pass |
Parameter Sensitivity
Annualised Information Ratio
| period_forward |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
| period_back |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 17 |
0.799 |
0.779 |
0.849 |
0.894 |
0.919 |
0.947 |
0.945 |
0.928 |
0.906 |
0.905 |
0.899 |
| 18 |
0.794 |
0.786 |
0.857 |
0.879 |
0.890 |
0.926 |
0.918 |
0.893 |
0.871 |
0.872 |
0.861 |
| 19 |
0.804 |
0.823 |
0.899 |
0.910 |
0.914 |
0.940 |
0.927 |
0.891 |
0.874 |
0.863 |
0.854 |
| 20 |
0.857 |
0.858 |
0.925 |
0.927 |
0.935 |
0.954 |
0.948 |
0.901 |
0.877 |
0.869 |
0.865 |
| 21 |
0.891 |
0.894 |
0.956 |
0.951 |
0.945 |
0.970 |
0.952 |
0.910 |
0.873 |
0.868 |
0.860 |
| 22 |
0.925 |
0.916 |
0.968 |
0.957 |
0.962 |
0.970 |
0.954 |
0.903 |
0.868 |
0.858 |
0.856 |
| 23 |
0.943 |
0.930 |
0.981 |
0.964 |
0.951 |
0.938 |
0.927 |
0.883 |
0.852 |
0.847 |
0.841 |
| 24 |
0.898 |
0.892 |
0.925 |
0.917 |
0.906 |
0.901 |
0.900 |
0.860 |
0.832 |
0.817 |
0.809 |
| 25 |
0.937 |
0.922 |
0.943 |
0.934 |
0.924 |
0.914 |
0.901 |
0.857 |
0.818 |
0.792 |
0.769 |
| 26 |
0.927 |
0.905 |
0.925 |
0.913 |
0.909 |
0.900 |
0.879 |
0.829 |
0.781 |
0.762 |
0.744 |
| 27 |
0.969 |
0.934 |
0.956 |
0.945 |
0.939 |
0.925 |
0.903 |
0.828 |
0.779 |
0.761 |
0.749 |
Annualised Return (%)
| period_forward |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
| period_back |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 17 |
7.874 |
7.358 |
7.800 |
7.932 |
7.867 |
7.817 |
7.530 |
7.085 |
6.603 |
6.321 |
5.995 |
| 18 |
7.777 |
7.396 |
7.858 |
7.805 |
7.620 |
7.669 |
7.334 |
6.849 |
6.400 |
6.136 |
5.777 |
| 19 |
7.959 |
7.863 |
8.373 |
8.212 |
7.966 |
7.904 |
7.525 |
6.951 |
6.531 |
6.197 |
5.860 |
| 20 |
8.604 |
8.297 |
8.716 |
8.469 |
8.268 |
8.146 |
7.822 |
7.137 |
6.664 |
6.355 |
6.068 |
| 21 |
8.987 |
8.697 |
9.053 |
8.715 |
8.373 |
8.291 |
7.864 |
7.215 |
6.663 |
6.385 |
6.071 |
| 22 |
9.354 |
8.951 |
9.242 |
8.842 |
8.608 |
8.378 |
7.949 |
7.235 |
6.686 |
6.367 |
6.095 |
| 23 |
9.646 |
9.165 |
9.435 |
8.949 |
8.546 |
8.124 |
7.753 |
7.124 |
6.600 |
6.325 |
6.023 |
| 24 |
9.174 |
8.793 |
8.912 |
8.537 |
8.179 |
7.859 |
7.600 |
7.019 |
6.522 |
6.167 |
5.866 |
| 25 |
9.610 |
9.113 |
9.096 |
8.734 |
8.378 |
8.037 |
7.691 |
7.070 |
6.489 |
6.052 |
5.637 |
| 26 |
9.481 |
8.925 |
8.879 |
8.503 |
8.220 |
7.913 |
7.497 |
6.847 |
6.191 |
5.823 |
5.461 |
| 27 |
9.927 |
9.239 |
9.236 |
8.859 |
8.531 |
8.155 |
7.722 |
6.843 |
6.211 |
5.848 |
5.550 |
Annualised Std (%)
| period_forward |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
| period_back |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 17 |
10.132 |
9.727 |
9.368 |
9.000 |
8.650 |
8.317 |
8.026 |
7.703 |
7.361 |
7.046 |
6.730 |
| 18 |
10.081 |
9.679 |
9.340 |
9.016 |
8.679 |
8.365 |
8.071 |
7.757 |
7.439 |
7.118 |
6.794 |
| 19 |
10.180 |
9.789 |
9.450 |
9.131 |
8.818 |
8.481 |
8.194 |
7.899 |
7.574 |
7.274 |
6.954 |
| 20 |
10.252 |
9.864 |
9.527 |
9.232 |
8.932 |
8.597 |
8.316 |
8.011 |
7.698 |
7.406 |
7.100 |
| 21 |
10.258 |
9.878 |
9.544 |
9.236 |
8.933 |
8.601 |
8.319 |
8.015 |
7.730 |
7.454 |
7.151 |
| 22 |
10.243 |
9.899 |
9.615 |
9.311 |
9.006 |
8.692 |
8.390 |
8.101 |
7.808 |
7.524 |
7.214 |
| 23 |
10.339 |
9.971 |
9.675 |
9.354 |
9.053 |
8.736 |
8.441 |
8.177 |
7.872 |
7.582 |
7.273 |
| 24 |
10.381 |
10.021 |
9.743 |
9.417 |
9.141 |
8.838 |
8.545 |
8.291 |
7.982 |
7.687 |
7.386 |
| 25 |
10.373 |
10.010 |
9.736 |
9.444 |
9.161 |
8.889 |
8.643 |
8.386 |
8.093 |
7.804 |
7.503 |
| 26 |
10.351 |
10.003 |
9.705 |
9.430 |
9.150 |
8.908 |
8.652 |
8.414 |
8.120 |
7.833 |
7.533 |
| 27 |
10.327 |
10.001 |
9.745 |
9.462 |
9.170 |
8.911 |
8.654 |
8.421 |
8.161 |
7.879 |
7.595 |
Max Drawdown (%)
| period_forward |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
| period_back |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 17 |
-18.312 |
-16.292 |
-15.951 |
-15.874 |
-15.823 |
-15.877 |
-16.076 |
-16.313 |
-16.717 |
-15.702 |
-15.046 |
| 18 |
-20.444 |
-17.920 |
-16.520 |
-17.333 |
-18.143 |
-16.194 |
-16.344 |
-16.543 |
-16.822 |
-15.965 |
-14.745 |
| 19 |
-22.835 |
-18.186 |
-18.349 |
-18.609 |
-19.475 |
-18.034 |
-18.252 |
-18.262 |
-18.209 |
-17.197 |
-15.717 |
| 20 |
-21.459 |
-17.956 |
-17.759 |
-18.008 |
-18.585 |
-17.971 |
-17.809 |
-17.735 |
-17.598 |
-16.392 |
-15.146 |
| 21 |
-22.023 |
-18.459 |
-17.269 |
-17.154 |
-18.139 |
-18.026 |
-18.352 |
-18.001 |
-17.830 |
-16.399 |
-15.363 |
| 22 |
-20.537 |
-18.109 |
-18.576 |
-18.300 |
-18.715 |
-18.855 |
-18.588 |
-18.262 |
-17.702 |
-16.133 |
-14.834 |
| 23 |
-20.865 |
-18.979 |
-19.539 |
-19.922 |
-19.786 |
-19.833 |
-19.500 |
-18.721 |
-18.108 |
-16.773 |
-15.515 |
| 24 |
-21.196 |
-19.096 |
-20.225 |
-20.289 |
-20.482 |
-19.315 |
-18.913 |
-18.373 |
-17.688 |
-16.028 |
-14.989 |
| 25 |
-20.338 |
-18.688 |
-19.537 |
-19.670 |
-19.639 |
-19.204 |
-18.732 |
-18.167 |
-17.389 |
-15.894 |
-14.838 |
| 26 |
-20.648 |
-18.493 |
-18.900 |
-19.339 |
-19.625 |
-19.845 |
-19.466 |
-18.816 |
-17.839 |
-16.102 |
-15.011 |
| 27 |
-20.481 |
-18.108 |
-18.916 |
-19.002 |
-19.551 |
-19.886 |
-19.623 |
-18.960 |
-18.104 |
-16.508 |
-15.363 |
P-Value
| period_forward |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
| period_back |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 17 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
| 18 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
| 19 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
| 20 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
| 21 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
| 22 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
| 23 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
| 24 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
| 25 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
| 26 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
| 27 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
Weight & Return Contributions
| |
avg_weight |
last_weight |
annual_return_contrib |
pct_of_total_return |
time_long_pct |
time_short_pct |
time_active_pct |
win_ratio |
| label |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| australia |
0.002 |
0.000 |
0.33% |
3.80% |
35.37% |
27.71% |
63.08% |
51.87% |
| austria |
0.003 |
0.000 |
-0.14% |
-1.62% |
15.40% |
11.94% |
27.34% |
49.87% |
| belgium |
-0.005 |
0.022 |
0.13% |
1.47% |
17.91% |
22.62% |
40.53% |
49.64% |
| canada |
-0.001 |
0.000 |
0.05% |
0.62% |
27.41% |
28.89% |
56.30% |
48.82% |
| denmark |
-0.003 |
0.038 |
0.20% |
2.33% |
19.16% |
23.58% |
42.74% |
51.55% |
| finland |
-0.002 |
0.000 |
-0.05% |
-0.55% |
21.81% |
20.19% |
42.00% |
51.23% |
| france |
-0.005 |
-0.021 |
0.04% |
0.50% |
20.12% |
22.92% |
43.04% |
49.49% |
| germany |
-0.001 |
-0.042 |
0.10% |
1.14% |
29.55% |
29.70% |
59.25% |
50.37% |
| hong_kong |
-0.006 |
0.000 |
-0.18% |
-2.12% |
36.18% |
39.06% |
75.24% |
49.76% |
| ireland |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
| israel |
0.001 |
0.055 |
-0.28% |
-3.28% |
14.37% |
10.02% |
24.39% |
48.64% |
| italy |
0.002 |
0.000 |
-0.17% |
-1.98% |
21.22% |
12.97% |
34.19% |
49.14% |
| japan |
-0.002 |
0.038 |
0.77% |
8.96% |
37.58% |
42.23% |
79.81% |
51.99% |
| netherlands |
-0.003 |
0.000 |
-0.21% |
-2.48% |
18.28% |
21.59% |
39.87% |
47.87% |
| new_zealand |
-0.000 |
0.033 |
0.04% |
0.50% |
18.50% |
15.84% |
34.34% |
50.43% |
| norway |
-0.002 |
0.047 |
0.13% |
1.46% |
28.96% |
28.67% |
57.63% |
52.05% |
| portugal |
0.003 |
0.023 |
-0.03% |
-0.31% |
26.09% |
17.83% |
43.92% |
50.67% |
| singapore |
-0.003 |
0.051 |
0.35% |
4.04% |
26.60% |
31.47% |
58.07% |
51.65% |
| spain |
0.002 |
-0.146 |
-0.11% |
-1.23% |
34.12% |
33.53% |
67.65% |
49.56% |
| sweden |
-0.005 |
0.000 |
0.00% |
0.06% |
26.01% |
32.35% |
58.36% |
48.48% |
| switzerland |
-0.001 |
0.000 |
-0.02% |
-0.23% |
32.50% |
29.18% |
61.68% |
49.58% |
| united_kingdom |
-0.001 |
0.000 |
-0.03% |
-0.32% |
33.24% |
27.63% |
60.87% |
50.00% |
| united_states |
-0.008 |
0.044 |
0.06% |
0.71% |
25.87% |
40.01% |
65.88% |
49.22% |
| brazil |
0.001 |
0.000 |
0.47% |
5.49% |
33.31% |
30.95% |
64.26% |
52.41% |
| chile |
0.001 |
-0.138 |
0.22% |
2.60% |
13.49% |
12.60% |
26.09% |
53.11% |
| china |
0.002 |
0.020 |
0.79% |
9.10% |
41.05% |
41.49% |
82.54% |
52.77% |
| colombia |
-0.000 |
-0.077 |
0.18% |
2.03% |
5.08% |
4.27% |
9.36% |
51.97% |
| czech_republic |
0.001 |
-0.134 |
0.12% |
1.40% |
33.46% |
28.08% |
61.53% |
49.82% |
| egypt |
0.001 |
0.017 |
-0.35% |
-4.09% |
31.54% |
27.63% |
59.17% |
49.32% |
| greece |
0.006 |
0.000 |
0.16% |
1.85% |
15.84% |
10.39% |
26.23% |
53.93% |
| hungary |
0.007 |
0.000 |
0.39% |
4.56% |
21.30% |
17.46% |
38.76% |
51.14% |
| india |
0.008 |
0.052 |
0.87% |
10.05% |
42.59% |
42.45% |
85.04% |
52.43% |
| indonesia |
-0.000 |
0.038 |
0.45% |
5.16% |
40.01% |
40.01% |
80.03% |
50.74% |
| korea_south |
-0.004 |
0.085 |
0.55% |
6.33% |
27.41% |
29.92% |
57.33% |
51.54% |
| kuwait |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
| malaysia |
0.013 |
0.000 |
0.27% |
3.15% |
42.00% |
34.71% |
76.71% |
51.30% |
| mexico |
-0.001 |
-0.107 |
-0.07% |
-0.77% |
32.79% |
34.05% |
66.84% |
49.17% |
| philippines |
0.003 |
0.000 |
0.42% |
4.86% |
35.96% |
40.31% |
76.27% |
49.18% |
| poland |
-0.004 |
-0.016 |
0.31% |
3.56% |
25.87% |
29.55% |
55.42% |
50.93% |
| qatar |
-0.001 |
0.000 |
-0.02% |
-0.25% |
2.73% |
2.73% |
5.45% |
45.95% |
| saudi_arabia |
0.004 |
-0.124 |
1.29% |
14.96% |
43.33% |
44.51% |
87.84% |
51.59% |
| south_africa |
-0.000 |
0.000 |
0.13% |
1.51% |
13.85% |
16.21% |
30.07% |
48.53% |
| taiwan |
-0.000 |
0.018 |
0.88% |
10.23% |
35.22% |
36.18% |
71.41% |
52.32% |
| thailand |
-0.000 |
0.065 |
-0.25% |
-2.87% |
34.71% |
36.70% |
71.41% |
49.95% |
| turkey |
0.005 |
0.060 |
0.86% |
9.97% |
42.74% |
39.65% |
82.39% |
52.24% |
| uae |
-0.004 |
0.065 |
-0.03% |
-0.31% |
16.58% |
16.58% |
33.16% |
50.67% |
| equity_dm |
-0.036 |
0.143 |
1.10% |
12.77% |
44.29% |
55.71% |
100.00% |
51.07% |
| equity_em |
0.034 |
-0.177 |
7.33% |
84.82% |
55.71% |
44.29% |
100.00% |
55.34% |
| APAC |
0.012 |
0.401 |
5.28% |
61.09% |
51.29% |
48.71% |
100.00% |
54.31% |
| Americas |
-0.009 |
-0.278 |
0.73% |
8.43% |
44.36% |
55.12% |
99.48% |
50.74% |
| EMEA |
-0.005 |
-0.157 |
2.42% |
28.07% |
49.08% |
50.92% |
100.00% |
52.84% |
Ex-Country Sensitivity Analysis
Appendix - Regime Classification
Further details on the regime classification approach can be found here